Opening Day!
And everybody in the Trib Tower is drinking that delicious blue Kool-Aid.
Gulping by the gallon is Phil Rogers, baseball expert.
Dr. Phil's Cubbies season prediction? 95-67. Yes, you read that correctly. 95 wins.
The Cubbies have won 95 games or more exactly twice in the past 62 seasons.
Such optimism deserves a deeper analysis.
Phil's Pros
Adding Kosuke Fukodome and Jon Leiber.
Oh, and--careful, bizarre qualifier coming--having "played .578 ball over the last four-plus months [of 2007] without any hitter having a career year." Too bad you can't just take your favorite chunks of each season and place it on the back of your baseball card, Phil.
Phil's Cons
Little things like no "high-profile [read: dependable] No. 2 starter and established closer." Those things probably wouldn't haunt a team in a 162-game season, would they, baseball expert?
In fact, it would probably be easy to win 95 (yes, 95!) games without those two things, right? Because, after all, you know, like, no hitter had a career year in 2007. And they got the guy from Japan, and they installed the most oft-injured and disappointing young pitcher in recent baseball history as their closer.
When Underachievement Means Overachievment
Know what's funny? Even if we assume the real Cubbies showed up sometime in June after Sweet Lou finally pushed the right tantrum button--that managing technique's not gonna grow old this year, is it, Phil?--and the true Cubbies are a .578 monster, .578 projects to only 93 or 94 wins over the course of a season. So in Phil's eyes, not only do the Cubbies get a mulligan for being horrible last April and May, they'll actually be better than their overachievement in the last four months of the season. Which, you'll recall, featured a car-crash sort of pennant race wherein neither the mediocre Cubbies or barely-there Brewers wanted to win the division.
You'll also recall that Dr. Phil and the rest of the Tribune crew decided to take the team's flaccid end to the season into account, instead oddly twisting it into a slingshot that would shoot the Cubbies to a NLDS win against the superior Diamondbacks (in fact, if you smoked enough of the Tower herb, like Paul Sullivan, you predict a sweep!).
Blind Spot: The NL Central
Dr. Phil doesn't even dare denigrate the gilded Cubbies by acknowledging that one reason he feels they could improve, or at least should win the division, is that teams in the NL Central would have trouble competing in the Pacific Coast League. That's a legitimate, simple statement that would largely shut up the critics who might be tempted to, y'know, poke holes in Dr. Phil's "analysis."
But no, as far as we can tell the good doc feels the NL Central is pretty dadgum good. Why else would he predict that five of the six NL Central teams would improve in 2008? And no, not just an improvement of one or two games, but the best turnaround of any division in major league baseball. According to Dr. Phil's breathless caffeination, the six teams of the NL Central--acknowledged even by grandmothers and house pets entirely indifferent to baseball as the worst division in baseball--will finish 488-484 this year!
Yep, this offseason the Cubs treaded water, the Brewers did about the same, the Reds added Dusty and a closer, Houston can't pitch, Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh, and St. Louis lost more major-league talent than anyone this season (at least in Phil's eyes). But somehow, some way, the division will get better by a whopping 29 games.
Phil Rogers: A Real Baseball Writer?
A real baseball writer wouldn't say the Cubbies would win 95 games and the division just because the company memo demanded it.
A real baseball writer would point out that Ryan Theriot had a "career" year, Jacque Jones most definitely hit better than anticipated, and Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez may not have had "career" years, but performed about how you'd expect.
A real baseball writer would point out how preposterous it is that one of the Cubbies' best power men (Soriano) batted leadoff last year because, well, he wanted to. Or that this year's leadoff hitter, Theriot, had an on-base percentage of .326 last year.
A real baseball writer would point out that the team's splashy free-agent acquisition, Fukodome, essentially replaces a guy they already had in Matt Murton, whose .281/.352/.438 numbers in 2007 will be grounds for a Trib-sponsored Fukodome Rookie of the Year campaign if the Japanese import manages to match them. (Of course, that doesn't factor in the overseas ad dollars that will work their way onto the hallowed brick walls of The Shrine, but those numbers don't show up on a baseball card.)
A real baseball writer would acknowledge the team's lack of confidence in five-tool prospect Felix Pie could derail the career of the most promising player to come from their system in years.
And Wait a Minute...What About the Pitching?
While the offense (apparently) didn't have any "career" years or overachievers, the Cubbies' pitching staff did, which is something Dr. Phil conveniently ignores.
The team had a 4.04 ERA, second in the NL.
Ted Lillly went 15-8, 3.83, and pitched 207 innings with career bests in wins, Ks, and IP; for his career he averages 12-10, 4.46.
Rich Hill went into 2007 with career numbers of 6-9, 123 IP, and a 5.12 ERA; in 2007 he was 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 195 IP.
Sean Marshall entered 2007 at 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA and had a 7-8 season in 2007, with a 3.92 ERA.
Ryan Dempster managed 28 saves with a 4.73 ERA in 2007, which may have alarmed the bleacher bums, but Dempster's career ERA is actually 4.82. And his ballyhooed return--a retreat, really--to the rotation ignores the fact that as a starter, Dempster has a 5.01 career ERA.
Bob Howry posted a 3.32 ERA in 2007, better than his career 3.49.
Michael Wuertz has a 3.48 ERA in 2007, better than his career 3.59.
Lieber, the (consolation) prize pitching addition of the offseason, is 38, hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 in four years, has combined to go 12-17 with a 4.87 ERA in the past two seasons, and pitched well enough in spring training to...work in long relief to begin the season.
Even Carlos Marmol, the prize of the Cubbies pitching staff, is suspect. He brought a career ERA of 6.08 into 2007 and in his first relief season posted a 5-1 record with a 1.43 ERA.
2004 All Over Again
Four seasons ago, noted baseball expert Ron Santo wet himself over the idea that the Cubbies would win 100 games. Rather than joke about the notion, the Tribune took it seriously, assigning Paul Sullivan to provide a detailed analysis of just how the team would hit the century mark, month-by-month, game-by-game. Apparently it took months for the paper to see what the rest of us saw--a disintegrating club that would wheeze to a 89-73 finish--because it published several "updates" to this fictional 100-win campaign, deep into the summer.
The question is, has Ronnie been whispering sweet nothings to Tribune staffers again this spring?
--Brett Ballantini
Gulping by the gallon is Phil Rogers, baseball expert.
Dr. Phil's Cubbies season prediction? 95-67. Yes, you read that correctly. 95 wins.
The Cubbies have won 95 games or more exactly twice in the past 62 seasons.
Such optimism deserves a deeper analysis.
Phil's Pros
Adding Kosuke Fukodome and Jon Leiber.
Oh, and--careful, bizarre qualifier coming--having "played .578 ball over the last four-plus months [of 2007] without any hitter having a career year." Too bad you can't just take your favorite chunks of each season and place it on the back of your baseball card, Phil.
Phil's Cons
Little things like no "high-profile [read: dependable] No. 2 starter and established closer." Those things probably wouldn't haunt a team in a 162-game season, would they, baseball expert?
In fact, it would probably be easy to win 95 (yes, 95!) games without those two things, right? Because, after all, you know, like, no hitter had a career year in 2007. And they got the guy from Japan, and they installed the most oft-injured and disappointing young pitcher in recent baseball history as their closer.
When Underachievement Means Overachievment
Know what's funny? Even if we assume the real Cubbies showed up sometime in June after Sweet Lou finally pushed the right tantrum button--that managing technique's not gonna grow old this year, is it, Phil?--and the true Cubbies are a .578 monster, .578 projects to only 93 or 94 wins over the course of a season. So in Phil's eyes, not only do the Cubbies get a mulligan for being horrible last April and May, they'll actually be better than their overachievement in the last four months of the season. Which, you'll recall, featured a car-crash sort of pennant race wherein neither the mediocre Cubbies or barely-there Brewers wanted to win the division.
You'll also recall that Dr. Phil and the rest of the Tribune crew decided to take the team's flaccid end to the season into account, instead oddly twisting it into a slingshot that would shoot the Cubbies to a NLDS win against the superior Diamondbacks (in fact, if you smoked enough of the Tower herb, like Paul Sullivan, you predict a sweep!).
Blind Spot: The NL Central
Dr. Phil doesn't even dare denigrate the gilded Cubbies by acknowledging that one reason he feels they could improve, or at least should win the division, is that teams in the NL Central would have trouble competing in the Pacific Coast League. That's a legitimate, simple statement that would largely shut up the critics who might be tempted to, y'know, poke holes in Dr. Phil's "analysis."
But no, as far as we can tell the good doc feels the NL Central is pretty dadgum good. Why else would he predict that five of the six NL Central teams would improve in 2008? And no, not just an improvement of one or two games, but the best turnaround of any division in major league baseball. According to Dr. Phil's breathless caffeination, the six teams of the NL Central--acknowledged even by grandmothers and house pets entirely indifferent to baseball as the worst division in baseball--will finish 488-484 this year!
Yep, this offseason the Cubs treaded water, the Brewers did about the same, the Reds added Dusty and a closer, Houston can't pitch, Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh, and St. Louis lost more major-league talent than anyone this season (at least in Phil's eyes). But somehow, some way, the division will get better by a whopping 29 games.
Phil Rogers: A Real Baseball Writer?
A real baseball writer wouldn't say the Cubbies would win 95 games and the division just because the company memo demanded it.
A real baseball writer would point out that Ryan Theriot had a "career" year, Jacque Jones most definitely hit better than anticipated, and Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez may not have had "career" years, but performed about how you'd expect.
A real baseball writer would point out how preposterous it is that one of the Cubbies' best power men (Soriano) batted leadoff last year because, well, he wanted to. Or that this year's leadoff hitter, Theriot, had an on-base percentage of .326 last year.
A real baseball writer would point out that the team's splashy free-agent acquisition, Fukodome, essentially replaces a guy they already had in Matt Murton, whose .281/.352/.438 numbers in 2007 will be grounds for a Trib-sponsored Fukodome Rookie of the Year campaign if the Japanese import manages to match them. (Of course, that doesn't factor in the overseas ad dollars that will work their way onto the hallowed brick walls of The Shrine, but those numbers don't show up on a baseball card.)
A real baseball writer would acknowledge the team's lack of confidence in five-tool prospect Felix Pie could derail the career of the most promising player to come from their system in years.
And Wait a Minute...What About the Pitching?
While the offense (apparently) didn't have any "career" years or overachievers, the Cubbies' pitching staff did, which is something Dr. Phil conveniently ignores.
The team had a 4.04 ERA, second in the NL.
Ted Lillly went 15-8, 3.83, and pitched 207 innings with career bests in wins, Ks, and IP; for his career he averages 12-10, 4.46.
Rich Hill went into 2007 with career numbers of 6-9, 123 IP, and a 5.12 ERA; in 2007 he was 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 195 IP.
Sean Marshall entered 2007 at 6-9 with a 5.59 ERA and had a 7-8 season in 2007, with a 3.92 ERA.
Ryan Dempster managed 28 saves with a 4.73 ERA in 2007, which may have alarmed the bleacher bums, but Dempster's career ERA is actually 4.82. And his ballyhooed return--a retreat, really--to the rotation ignores the fact that as a starter, Dempster has a 5.01 career ERA.
Bob Howry posted a 3.32 ERA in 2007, better than his career 3.49.
Michael Wuertz has a 3.48 ERA in 2007, better than his career 3.59.
Lieber, the (consolation) prize pitching addition of the offseason, is 38, hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 in four years, has combined to go 12-17 with a 4.87 ERA in the past two seasons, and pitched well enough in spring training to...work in long relief to begin the season.
Even Carlos Marmol, the prize of the Cubbies pitching staff, is suspect. He brought a career ERA of 6.08 into 2007 and in his first relief season posted a 5-1 record with a 1.43 ERA.
2004 All Over Again
Four seasons ago, noted baseball expert Ron Santo wet himself over the idea that the Cubbies would win 100 games. Rather than joke about the notion, the Tribune took it seriously, assigning Paul Sullivan to provide a detailed analysis of just how the team would hit the century mark, month-by-month, game-by-game. Apparently it took months for the paper to see what the rest of us saw--a disintegrating club that would wheeze to a 89-73 finish--because it published several "updates" to this fictional 100-win campaign, deep into the summer.
The question is, has Ronnie been whispering sweet nothings to Tribune staffers again this spring?
--Brett Ballantini
Labels: Chicago Tribune, Cubbies Kool-Aid, Phil Rogers, Ron Santo
posted by Chicago Cubune Watch permalink
